Media Buying Market to Grow 2.5x by 2027: Why Brands Are Switching Agencies

The global media tender market is undergoing its largest contract renegotiation cycle in a decade: while in a typical year brands put $15–17 bln in media budgets up for competitive bidding, 2026 will see this figure reach $30 bln, and 2027 will exceed $40 bln, according to ID Comms. The new "Media Pause"—as the industry calls this mass renegotiation of agency agreements—has affected Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Adidas, Estée Lauder, Heineken, and dozens of other multinational companies. The key difference in this cycle compared to previous ones is that the focus is no longer on pricing terms and procurement transparency, but rather on agencies' ability to rebuild their marketing infrastructure around generative AI, media planning automation, and data integration. For the Russian market, where influencer marketing and programmatic buying follow their own trajectory, this trend signals accelerating demand from brands for technological maturity and measurable results.

Why brands are switching media agencies en masse right now

Previous contract renegotiation waves focused on financial terms: commissions, rebates, pricing transparency. Today, the spotlight is on agencies' technological capabilities. Brands demand proof that implementing generative AI increases campaign effectiveness, not just cuts operational costs. This fundamentally changes the selection criteria: instead of a media buyer with access to premium inventory, companies now seek a strategic partner capable of unifying media buying, analytics, data management, and automation into a single system.

According to industry experts, more than a quarter of the world's largest advertisers have not changed media partners for longer than seven years. This inertia stems from the high costs of switching vendors: integrating a new team, migrating data, and rebuilding processes demand significant resources and time. However, the accumulated gap between agencies' current capabilities and new technological requirements has reached critical mass. Brands are now willing to invest in switching vendors to gain access to AI tools, predictive analytics, and automated media planning.

This wave also differs in its geography: while tenders previously concentrated in the US and Western Europe, companies from Asia and EMEA markets are now joining the process. For Russian brands, this means raising the bar of expectations: even if foreign AI platforms are inaccessible, marketers expect agencies to have their own technological solutions for automating reporting, forecasting reach, and optimizing placements.

How influencer marketing fits into the new agency contract logic

Working with content creators and opinion leaders has traditionally remained on the periphery of classic media contracts: brands either purchased integrations on an ad-hoc basis or outsourced this to specialized agencies. The new tender wave is reshuffling priorities. Advertisers now demand unified reporting across all media channels—from television and programmatic banners to bloggers and podcasts. This means agencies must plan reach and frequency in influencer campaigns with the same rigor as traditional media, and integrate this data into a comprehensive analytics dashboard.

Brands are no longer willing to take "audience engagement" and "creator loyalty" on faith—they require measurable KPIs comparable across channels and forecasting models built on historical data.

In the Russian market, this pressure intensifies with ad labeling requirements: each blogger integration must be correctly registered in the Registry of Advertisers, and campaign reports must contain token references. Agencies capable of automating ad registrations, controlling publications, and collecting statistics in a single interface gain a competitive advantage. Influencer marketing essentially stops being a "creative" activity and becomes as technology-driven a channel as contextual ads or programmatic buying.

What talent shortage means for agencies and brands

Implementing AI tools and automating media planning require specialists of a new profile: data analysts, machine learning engineers, API integration experts, and marketing technologists. Such professionals are still scarce on the market, and competition for them is fierce. As a result, large agency holding companies become more selective: they participate only in tenders where potential returns justify pitch preparation costs and subsequent team integration.

For brands, this means that for the first time in a long while, not only do they select agencies—agencies now select clients too. Companies with small budgets or low technological maturity risk receiving no offers from leading players. On the Russian market, the talent shortage manifests differently: the primary shortage is in specialists capable of building end-to-end campaign analytics—from media planning and buying to conversion attribution and incrementality calculation. Agencies investing in training such teams secure long-term client relationships.

Checklist for a marketer: how to prepare for an agency contract review

• Audit of current data infrastructure. Map your data sources (CRM, web analytics, social networks, offline sales) and assess which ones the agency can integrate into a unified reporting dashboard.
• Define priority KPIs. Decide what matters most to measure: reach and frequency, attributed conversions, incremental sales, or long-term brand lift. This will determine your requirements for the agency's analytical stack.
• Request automation case studies. Ask potential vendors to show real examples of using AI tools: automated bid optimization, predictive audience modeling, creative generation, or dynamic budget reallocation across channels.
• Verify influencer marketing capabilities. Clarify how the agency selects creators (manual curation, scoring models, audience analysis via API), how it forecasts reach, and how it integrates blogger data into the overall media plan.
• Assess ad labeling capabilities. If you're operating in the Russian market, ensure the agency automates ad registration submissions, controls token publication, and collects reporting for each integration.
• Plan a pilot project. Instead of immediately migrating your entire budget, negotiate a test campaign with a limited budget. This lets you verify team integration quality, responsiveness to changes, and forecast accuracy.

ETC Methodology: how to build strategy amid rising requirements

At ETC, our approach to influencer marketing is built on the same principles that major brands now demand from media agencies: data integration, process automation, and measurable results at every stage. Strategy begins with a brand audience audit: we analyze socio-demographic profiles, media consumption patterns, overlaps with creators' subscribers, and behavioral segments. This enables us to build a forecasting model for reach and contact frequency before campaign launch.

Creator selection uses a scoring system that considers not just audience size and engagement, but also brand value alignment, history of previous advertising collaborations, and audience quality (bot ratio, geographic distribution, subscriber activity). Each candidate undergoes reputation risk screening and compliance checks with advertising legislation.

Media planning accounts for cross-channel synergies: if a brand simultaneously runs contextual ads, targeted campaigns, and creator partnerships, we model combined reach factoring in audience overlap and plan a sequence of touchpoints. This is especially critical for categories with long decision cycles—such as financial services or real estate.

Ad labeling is built into the workflow: the system automatically generates Registry submissions, monitors token publication, and collects statistics for each integration. Reports are formatted uniformly, allowing you to compare creator campaign results with other channels—from reach and clicks to attributed conversions and ROI calculation.

Frequently asked questions

Why are brands changing media agencies more frequently than usual in 2026–2027?

Media tender volume will grow from typical $15–17 bln to $40 bln by 2027 because companies demand technological transformation from agencies: AI tool implementation, media planning automation, and data integration into a single system. More than a quarter of the largest advertisers haven't changed vendors in over seven years, and the accumulated competency gap has reached critical mass.

How Have Agency Requirements Changed in the New Wave of Media Tenders?

Brands are no longer satisfied with simply reviewing pricing terms and procurement transparency. The main criterion is now an agency's ability to demonstrate that new technologies genuinely improve campaign performance, rather than just cutting costs. This demands that contractors have their own AI tools, predictive analytics capabilities, and unified reporting across all channels, including work with content creators and influencers.

What Does the Talent Shortage in Agency Business Mean for Russian Brands?

The Russian market lacks specialists capable of building end-to-end campaign analytics and integrating data from multiple sources. Agencies are becoming more selective and only participate in tenders with high potential returns. Brands with modest budgets or lower technological maturity may find it harder to secure contractors at the level of major holding companies.