Until recently, YouTube was the leading influencer marketing platform for Russian advertisers by spend. The 2026 forecast from industry association RARA paints a different picture: YouTube's share of budgets may shrink to 12%, while Telegram and TikTok are expected to grow their shares. We break down what's driving this forecast and how brands should prepare.
From 33% to 12%: What's Happening with YouTube
In 2025, YouTube accounted for 33.1% of blogger advertising spend in Russia—more than any other platform. RARA's forecast for 2026 is far more modest: around 12% of budgets. This shift is driven by multiple factors—from general limitations on foreign platforms' advertising potential to advertisers seeking more stable and predictable channels from a regulatory standpoint.
Telegram and TikTok—New Leaders by Spend
According to the same forecast, Telegram could capture up to 44% of influencer marketing budgets, with TikTok taking up to 33%. Even accounting for the fact that industry association forecasts traditionally lean toward more dramatic scenarios, the direction is clear: brands are diversifying their presence and don't want to depend on a single platform—especially one with limited advertising potential in Russia.
65–70% of advertising budgets remain on proven platforms, while brands allocate 20–30% to test new domestic platforms.
Cautious Diversification, Not a Sharp Pivot
In practice, no one is making abrupt moves. According to the Blogger and Agency Association, 65–70% of advertising budgets remain on already proven platforms—VK, Telegram, YouTube—with only 20–30% of budgets directed toward testing new domestic platforms like Max, Dzen, and Wibes. This means that for most brands, the right strategy for 2026 isn't abandoning YouTube entirely, but gradually redistributing a portion of the budget while testing new channels with small allocations.
The Regulatory Backdrop Also Drives Budget Shifts
Budget redistribution is also directly influenced by the regulatory environment: until the end of 2026, FAS is not issuing fines for advertising on Telegram, which temporarily reduces risks for advertisers on this platform. Meanwhile, the spring 2026 slowdown of Telegram and the Instagram block reduced the total number of promotion channels available to brands—hence the growing interest in testing new domestic platforms.
What Brands Should Do Right Now
A practical plan for 2026: keep your core budget on proven channels with clear analytics (Telegram, VK, some YouTube), allocate 20–30% for testing new platforms with small pilot placements and clear KPIs, and be sure to build flexibility into your media plan—budget distribution forecasts in this market change faster than annual advertising plans.
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