US Food Sales Decline: How Brands Respond to Shifting Demand

Food purchases in the U.S. dropped 1.8% in June 2026 compared to June 2025, according to Bain & Company analysis based on NielsenIQ data. A year ago, the metric still showed growth of 0.1%, but now Americans are buying fewer products despite ongoing price inflation of 2–3% annually. Manufacturers and retailers are reshaping their pricing and promotional strategies to restore consumer spending.

Why the U.S. food market is shrinking

Food prices in the U.S. have risen approximately 33% since 2019. A standard grocery shopping trip that cost $300 five years ago now costs around $400. According to Kurt Gricchel, head of retail at Bain in North and South America, even high-income consumers are experiencing sticker shock and increasingly comparing offers across different stores.

Purchasing power is affected by multiple factors. Beyond rising food prices, fuel costs have surged sharply. Low-income households have faced cuts to SNAP (food assistance) benefits and stricter eligibility requirements. The Bain U.S. Consumer Pulse Wave survey conducted in May 2026 revealed that 80% of Americans are trying to spend less, and 28% are deliberately cutting back on grocery spending.

How consumer behavior is changing

Among consumers reducing food spending, 56% are switching to cheaper brands, 49% are buying fewer items, and 44% are using coupons and promotions more actively. These trends are visible not only in retail chains but also in major manufacturers' earnings reports.

«The consumer is feeling worse than we expected, and that's mainly due to gas prices,» said Ramon Laguarta, CEO of PepsiCo.

PepsiCo released second-quarter 2026 results: revenue from its North American food division declined 2%, while sales volume remained flat. The company increased promotional activity and adjusted pricing in response to heightened price sensitivity. Similar changes are occurring across other manufacturers: the market is shifting from revenue growth to volume recovery.

Retailers and manufacturers are lowering prices

Walmart and Kroger announced summer discounts on beef, ice cream, and other product categories, including offerings from PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, and their own private labels—Walmart's Great Value line, for example. Joe Feldman, analyst at Telsey Advisory Group, notes that grocery chains are pressuring suppliers to cut prices, and manufacturers acknowledge the necessity of such moves. The entire industry is trying to return to volume growth, not just revenue growth.

According to Bain, success will go to retailers that aggressively manage prices on key marker products—items whose prices consumers remember and compare. This list includes ground beef, chicken, milk, and eggs. Stores are combining promotions, loyalty programs, personalization, and private labels to build a clear and reliable value proposition.

What this means for Russian brands

Dynamics in the U.S. food market demonstrate how quickly consumer behavior can shift under inflation and external pressures. Russian consumer goods manufacturers face similar challenges: buyers are more actively seeking promotions, rethinking their shopping baskets, and demanding transparent pricing policies. Under these conditions, traditional TV advertising and banner campaigns lose effectiveness—a brand needs direct communication with its audience through opinion leaders who explain product value and integrate it into consumers' daily shopping context.

Influencer marketing enables flexible reach and CPM management, allows testing creative assets on narrow segments, and facilitates quick media plan adjustments. With the right blogger selection, a brand gains not just reach but audience trust—a key asset when prices are rising. The ETC team builds integrations with KPI forecasting, media buying, and ad labeling in compliance with legal requirements, which is especially important for the FMCG sector, where every campaign must deliver returns in the short term.

Frequently asked questions

Why are food sales falling in the U.S.

Purchase volume is declining due to accumulated inflation: prices have risen 33% since 2019, forcing consumers to reduce the quantity of items in their baskets. Additional pressure comes from rising fuel prices and cuts to food assistance for low-income households.

How are manufacturers responding to falling demand

Major manufacturers, including PepsiCo, are increasing promotional activity and adjusting prices. Retailers like Walmart and Kroger are announcing discounts on key product categories to restore consumer spending and shift from revenue growth to sales volume growth.

Which products are most often put on sale

Stores focus on key marker products—items whose prices consumers remember and use for comparison: ground beef, chicken, milk, eggs, ice cream. These are the categories on which retailers concentrate their promotions and loyalty programs.

In brief

• Food purchase volume in the U.S. fell 1.8% in June 2026—the first decline after a year of positive momentum.
• Food prices have risen 33% since 2019; 2–3% annual inflation no longer offsets the decline in sales volume.
• 80% of Americans are trying to spend less, 56% are switching to cheaper brands, and 49% are buying fewer items.
• PepsiCo recorded a 2% revenue decline in North America; the company has increased promotional activity.
• Walmart and Kroger are cutting prices on key categories, pressuring suppliers to lower prices, and expanding private label offerings.
• For Russian brands facing shifting demand, communication flexibility is critical: influencer marketing with KPI forecasting and media buying enables brands to maintain audience trust and quickly adjust strategy.